Workshop tool
Theory of Change
Use this when you need a road map showing how your inputs and activities lead to outcomes, impact and the long-term vision.
How to use it
A Theory of Change (ToC) is an essential tool in research project design, offering a systematic approach to planning, implementing and evaluating complex initiatives. It is a road map that outlines how and why a desired change is expected to occur based on the inputs and activities of the researchers. You identify the desired long-term goals and then work backwards to map out the necessary inputs, activities and outcomes.
A ToC enhances clarity and focus by articulating the causal pathways to the intended outcomes, which helps align partners' and stakeholders' expectations. It also identifies key assumptions and risks that might affect the project's success; these can be mapped with the assumptions you discovered in Workshop 3.
A ToC is particularly useful when designing the framework and methodology of your project, and during monitoring and evaluation. Its primary outputs are a visual diagram and a narrative explanation. Revisit it often; as planning progresses, add details about work packages, resources and results.
Every ToC is unique, so the handbook gives no fixed diagram. Work through the six elements and their questions:
- Vision: the overall purpose and goals the project aims to contribute to (but is not necessarily accountable for). This is the ideal state from your gap analysis.
- Inputs: resources invested: personnel, pre-existing funding, networks, research facilities, etc.
- Activities: main activities and the actors involved. This is where you start building work packages.
- Outputs: knowledge creation, new technology, public engagement, policy changes.
- Outcomes: immediate/short-term, end-of-project and long-term outcomes. Who is affected and how?
- Impact: tangible social, economic and/or environmental benefits. Think as big as possible.
Source: START Triple-I project development tool kit, pp. 17–20.